Spring 2026 Water Supply Findings and Outlook

An image of the Colorado River Aqueduct
The Colorado River Aqueduct

Kevin Hostert, Senior Water Resources Analyst, Municipal Water District of Orange County
April 13, 2026

Spring 2026 arrived with temperatures more characteristic of summer. Following a record heatwave in March that hit most of the West, on April 1, 2026, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) conducted its fourth snow survey of the season in the Northern Sierra Mountains and found no measurable snow. In response, The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California stated that the low snowpack levels are a “warning signal that we must continue investing in our future water security, particularly as climate change causes more extreme weather.” So, what does this mean for the region’s water supply as we move into the typically dry summer months? Below is an updated snapshot of the major factors influencing supply, usage, and planning.

1. Orange County’s Local Water Supply Remains Robust

Despite concerning snowpack levels in the Northern Sierras, the region’s water supply is resilient. As of April 2026, rainfall totals in the county are slightly above their end-of-year averages, helping replenish the groundwater basin and reducing water demand. The Orange County Groundwater Basin, which supplies North and Central Orange County with 85% of its water, has maintained its “ideal” level for many years now, and no significant drawdown is projected in the near future, nor is the need for imported replenishment water to supplement groundwater basin levels.

2. Imported Water Shortage Levels Looking to Rebound After Summer/Fall Drawdown

Due to early-season storms, reservoir levels in Northern California remain healthy. All major state and federal reservoirs remain at or above historical averages. Back in January, the California Department of Water Resources raised the State Water Project Table A Allocation to 30%. This increase means that imported water demand should equal imported water supply in 2026, resulting in no drawdown of imported water storage supplies.

3. Very Little Snowpack

Despite a promising start to the 2026 water year, the snowpack in both California and the Upper Colorado River Basin is at a critically low level for the start of spring. This low snowpack will lead to less runoff and draw reservoirs down much earlier than normal, creating a potential drought scenario if snowfall does not rebound next year.

4. Ongoing Issues with the Colorado River

The Colorado River System remains at a standstill regarding the long-term water supply outlook. Lake Mead levels remain very low, and the structural deficit in Colorado River water usage is currently being negotiated among the seven Colorado River Basin states and Mexico. The seven basin states did not meet their February 14, 2026, deadline to submit a new operating plan for the Colorado River. As a result, the United States Federal Government will now likely step in and impose a new plan, which may or may not result in litigation. Regardless, the estimated runoff for the Colorado River is looking to be around 50% of normal this year, and outlooks for Lake Powell and Lake Mead are bleak. 

Ongoing strategic planning, innovation, and regional collaboration are the reasons why, despite extreme weather and critically low snowpack this season, Orange County’s water supply remains healthy. Want to see how MWDOC monitors water supply conditions? Explore MWDOC’s Water Supply Report to access the latest data on statewide and local water resources, including precipitation levels, reservoir storage, water demand, and more.