5 Mid-Winter Water Supply Findings: A Look at Current Levels and Projections
Kevin Hostert, Senior Water Resources Analyst, Municipal Water District of Orange County
February 3, 2026, Updated date: February 23, 2026
As we move into the second half of the winter season, a mix of encouraging signals and long-term challenges continues to shape the water supply outlook. From strong reservoir levels in Northern California to ongoing concerns around snowpack and the Colorado River, several key trends are worth watching closely. Below is a snapshot of the major water issues influencing supply, usage, and planning as we head toward the spring months of 2026.
1. California Imported Water Storage Levels Are Looking Very Good
After a dry January, February has brought needed rain and snowfall to the region. Northern California precipitation remains above average, while snowpack remains below average. Lake Oroville storage levels are 126% of normal. South of the Bay Delta, San Luis Reservoir is at 105% of its historical average. In addition, the State Water Project Table A percentage has been increased to 30%, this increase will most likely mean that little to no water will be taken out of storage to meet water import demands in 2026.
2. Warmer Storms Mean Less Snowpack
Despite a promising start to the 2026 water year, the snowpack in both California and the Upper Colorado River Basin remains well below historical averages. Snowpack is crucial in providing adequate runoff for the spring season.
3. Water Usage Continues to Remain Historically Low
Orange County continues to use less water than it did about 12 years ago. With the recent December storms, it is anticipated that imported water usage will be minimal for the Fiscal Year 2025-26.
4. Ongoing Issues with The Colorado River
The Colorado River System is still in limbo regarding its long-term water supply outlook. Lake Mead levels remain very low, and the structural deficit in Colorado River water usage is currently being negotiated among the seven Colorado River Basin states and Mexico. A new, federally encouraged deadline is February 14, 2026, by which the seven states are supposed to agree on final terms of a comprehensive proposal for how water will be shared and rivers managed after the current guidelines expire at the end of 2026. This includes how to allocate cutbacks and operate major reservoirs, such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell.
5. Orange County’s Local Water Supply is Robust
Orange County’s water supply remains resilient. As of January 2026, rainfall totals in the county are approaching their end-of-year averages, quite an impressive feat given that we are only about halfway through the wet season. The Orange County Groundwater Basin, which supplies North and Central Orange County with 85% of its water, has maintained its “ideal” level for many years now, and no significant drawdown is projected soon, nor is the need for imported replenishment water to supplement groundwater basin levels.
Want to see how MWDOC monitors water supply conditions? Explore MWDOC’s Water Supply Report to access the latest data on statewide and local water resources, including precipitation levels, reservoir storage, water demand, and more.